AgriCharts Market Commentary


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures posted fractional to 2 cent gains in most contracts to start the week. Spill over from soybeans and a little short covering helped, but losses in wheat limited those gains. The Monday morning Export Inspections report indicated corn exports in the week of 7/12 were 1.217 MMT. That was down 17% from the prior week, but 8.41% larger than the same week in 2017. YTD shipments are 4.73% behind the same time last year, with just over a month and a half left in the MY. NASS reported corn silking progress blowing past the normal pace of 37% at 63%. Condition ratings were reported at 72% gd/ex, down 3% from last week and a little below trade expectations, The Brugler500 index was down 6 at 381 points.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.41 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.55 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.67 1/4, up 3/4 cent

May 19 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures received help from a short covering rally, and saw 10 to 12 cent gains on Monday. Nearby soy meal was up $3.10/ton, with soy oil down 33 points, pressured by crude oil. Export Inspections for soybeans were shown at 635,429 MT for the reporting week that ended last Thursday. That was down 4.88% from the week prior, but more than double the same week last year. Of that total, 54,998 MT was headed for China. This morning’s NOPA report indicated that their members crushed 159.228 mbu of soybeans during June. That was just under expectations and down from May, but still a record for the month. NOPA member soy oil stocks were below trade estimates at 1.766 billion pounds. The afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed 65% of the crop blooming, with the average at 45% for this date and 26% of the crop already setting pods. It also indicated condition ratings down 2% to 69% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 375, 3 points lower on the week.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.29 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.35 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.45 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.65 1/2, up 12 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $329.10, up $3.10,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.64, down $0.33

Wheat

Wheat futures ended the Monday session with most CBT and KC contracts down 7 to 9 cents, as MPLS was steady to 3 1/2 cents lower. Pressure was from higher than expected yields in some HRW areas and rains forecast for the Northern Plains in the 5-day QPF. Export inspections of all wheat during the week of July 12 were reported at 469,529 MT by the USDA this morning. That was a jump of 75.05% from the previous week but still 21.05% lower than the same week in 2017. The winter wheat harvest was 74% complete as of Sunday, 3% faster than the average. The spring wheat crop was reported at 93% headed, with the normal pace at 85%. Good/ex conditions were steady at 80%, with the Brugler500 down 1 point to 388.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.28 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed the Monday session with contracts up 55 cents to $1.30. August was up $2.375, after touching limit gains earlier in the day. Feeder cattle futures were 70 cents to $1.65 in the green. The CME feeder cattle index was up 11 cents from the previous day at $148.27 on 7/13. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 38 cents to $203.76, while Select boxes were 70 cents lower at $195.67. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 119,000 head on Monday, up 11,000 from the same week last year and even with last week. Cash trades of $110-111 were reported late on Friday afternoon.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $106.925, up $2.375,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $108.650, up $1.275,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.700, up $1.300,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.375, up $1.650

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.450, up $1.375

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.625, up $1.275

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were down 95 cents to $1.60 in most contracts on Monday, with July expiring at $79.75/cwt. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 35 cents on July 12, to $80.91. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 45 cents on Monday afternoon at $83.37. The belly was down $1.81, with the loin $1.44 lower. The national base carcass price reported at $73.08 on Monday afternoon, down $1.18 from the day prior. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 431,000 head. That was 14,000 head above last year, but down 13,000 head from the week previous.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $79.750, down $0.200,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $69.200, down $0.950

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $54.000, down $1.300

Cotton

Cotton futures saw marginal losses on Monday, with nearby contracts 2 to 8 points lower. Crude oil was down a sharp $2.95 on the day, putting a little pressure on cotton. NASS reported that 72% of the US cotton crop was squared as of Sunday, with 31% setting bolls (ahead of the normal pace of 24%). Cotton conditions were shown at 41% gd/ex, steady on the week, as the Brugler500 was down 3 points to 310 on more very poor ratings. The Cotlook A index was up 2 cents from the previous week to 98.45 cents/lb on July 13. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 88.880, down 2 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.770, down 7 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 87.540, down 8 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com