Trade Wars Resumeagain
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:15 AM EST, heres what we see:
US Dollar: Sept. USD is Down at 94.445.
Energies: Aug '18 Crude is Up at 70.97.
Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is Down 9 ticks and trading at 145.06.
Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is 42 ticks Higher and trading at 2784.50.
Gold: The Aug gold contract is trading Up at 1245.80. Gold is 14 ticks Higher than its close.
This is a nearly correlated market. The dollar is Down- and Crude is Up+ which is normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Up+ which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down-. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this hour all of Asia is trading Higher. As of this writing Europe is trading mainly Higher with the exception of the Spanish IBEX and the Milan exchanges which are Lower at this time.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
- Core CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
- CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
- Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
- Nat Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.
- 30-y Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST. This is major.
- Federal Budget Balance is out at 2 PM EST. Major.
We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 10 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the YM hit a High. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 10 AM EST and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 10 AM and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 15 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25.
Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform Click on an image to enlarge it.
|ZB - Sept, 2018 - 7/11/18|
|YM- Sept, 2018 - 7/11/18|
Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias as the USD and the Bonds were trading Higher and that usually reflects a Downside day. The markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 219 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we are dealing with a nearly correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Well it looks as though the tariffs and trade war is having its impact again on the street as the markets took it on the chin yesterday. The pundits and analysts are all saying that the upcoming earnings season will alleviate the tariff situation and trade war scenario. What no one seems to understand is there is no such thing as a purely American made product any more and there hasn't been for a number of years now. We can say that a vehicle is assembled in Detroit, but what about the components of that vehicle? Japanese steel, leather from Europe or Canada, etc. So to have a trade war with tariffs will only serve to increase prices and this in turn will fuel the Fed to hike rates further and faster. A trade war is not good for this economy.
On Thursday, April 5th we had the honor and privilege to be interviewed by David Lincoln on his You Tube channel. David is a floor trader for the options markets. If you listen to this interview, you will enjoy it. To view the interview go to:
Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/market-correlation-is-market-direction/
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the Upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are Higher and the S&P is trading Higher. This is not normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. Yesterday August Crude dropped to a low of $70.36 and didn't look back. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $70.00 a barrel and resistance at $73.00. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now August. Last month OPEC met once again to cut production but the price of crude is starting to climb. Whereas prior to the production cuts the ceiling was in the 50 dollar range, it is now in the 70 plus dollar range. The question is if whether this is temporary or something more permanent. As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices. We'll have to see if and how long this lasts...
If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.
Crude Oil Is Trading Higher
Crude oil is trading Higher and the S&P is Higher. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, youll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.